3 grunde til, at CFTC-handlingen mod BitMEX ikke vil gå ned på Bitcoin-prisen

Bitcoin-prisen faldt med 4%, efter at CFTC afslørede anklager mod BitMEX, men BTC er fortsat bullish på lang sigt.

Inden for de sidste par timer styrtede Bitcoin (BTC) prisen, da den amerikanske kommission for råvarer og futures (CFTC) opkrævede BitMEX for at lette hvidvaskning af penge og drive en ulovlig kryptovalutaderivatudveksling. Et endnu større chok opstod, da myndighederne meddelte arrestationen af ​​Samuel Reed, en af ​​medstifterne af BitMEX.

BitMEX har været den mest dominerende Bitcoin futures-udveksling i lang tid, i det mindste indtil marts 2020, da den massive $ 1 mia. Black Thursday-likvidation trak prisen under $ 3.750. I de seneste måneder har nye konkurrenter som Binance Futures og ByBit øget deres markedsandel betydeligt.

Selvom industrien forventede, at anklagerne mod BitMEX ville komme en dag, er anholdelsen af ​​Reed en uventet overraskelse. Umiddelbart efter nyheden brød, faldt BTC-prisen fra $ 10.883 til $ 10.437, et fald på 4,11%.

Heldigvis er der flere faktorer, der kan hjælpe med at genoprette Bitcoin på kort sigt. Katalysatorerne er den korte varighed af den aktuelle korrektion, Bitcoins tidligere reaktioner på lovgivningsmæssige trusler og $ 10.500 support, der holdes i øjeblikket.
Bitcoin ser et hurtigt og intensivt fald i en kort periode

Prisen på Bitcoin faldt med mere end 4% på to timer, et niveau af volatilitet, som det typisk ikke ser.

Normalt, når Bitcoin falder med en sådan intensitet, forårsager det en kaskade af likvidationer. Da mange handler på futuresmarkedet er stærkt gearede, fører det til en løkke med lange kontraktlikvidationer, hvilket resulterer i et større fald.

Denne gang er åben interesse og volumen på futuresmarkedet betydeligt lavere. Der er færre overleveraged handler aktivt åbne på markedet, og dette reducerer sandsynligheden for en massiv korrektion.

Historikken viser, at reguleringsinducerede nedture er genopretningssteder

I årenes løb har kryptovalutamarkedet udholdt mange negative lovgivningsmæssige handlinger vedtaget af regeringer over hele verden, men som Bitcoin-forsker Vijay Boyapati siger, kom BTC sig stærkt fra hver enkelt.

Mens anklagen mod BitMEX kunne have en kortsigtet bearish implikation, sagde Boyapati på længere sigt sandsynligvis, at et opsving er sandsynligt. Han sagde:

”Bitcoin-markedet har altid reageret negativt på større udvekslingsproblemer eller statskonfiskationer. Historisk har dette altid givet en stor købsmulighed for Bitcoin. Justitsministeriets handling mod BitMEX vil ikke være anderledes. ”

$ 10.500 er stadig et vigtigt forsvarsområde

I det meste af august og september har $ 10.500-niveauet fungeret som et stærkt niveau af support. Bitcoin faldt undertiden kortvarigt under det, men kom hurtigt over det, og dette viser, at handlende er sikre på, at Bitcoin-prisen vil være højere i fremtiden.

I øjeblikket foreslår handlende, at den kortsigtede tendens i Bitcoin forbliver forsigtig, men neutral på mellemlang sigt. Cryptocurrency-forhandler Cantering Clark skrev:

”På kort sigt synes jeg, dette giver nogle store tovejs handelsmuligheder. I sidste ende, en uge fra nu, er det vand under broen. Dette sted har en kortsigtet opmærksomhed og er hurtig til at reagere. ”

Michael van de Poppe, en fuldtidshandler på Amsterdam Stock Exchange, gentog et lignende synspunkt. Han sagde:

”Folk svarer: ‚Ved du ikke noget om Bitmex-nyhederne?‘ Ja, jeg ved det. Jeg kender også til de mange hacks, der opstod ved udveksling af kryptokurrency, som blev ‚årsagen til et fald. Jeg handler niveauer. Nyheder er 99% efter på grund af indvendig info. ”

På tidspunktet for skrivningen fortsætter Bitcoin-prisen med at handle inden for en symmetrisk trekant, og $ 10.500-niveauet holder som support. For handlende, der fokuserer på support / modstandsniveauer, er $ 10.200 en vigtig pris at se på.

Hvis prisen skulle bryde under dette niveau, forventer mange erhvervsdrivende stadig $ 10.000- $ 9.800-sortimentet som support, da købere spændt købte dips til dette niveau hele september.

Peter Brandt sees no opportunities in crypto

He prefers to invest his money elsewhere.

When faced with a choice between blockchain and traditional investments, things could look better in the stock market, according to Peter Brandt, CEO of trading firm Factor LLC.

However, he added that it would depend on the choice of base currency

Brandt made it clear that he had mainly switched to the US dollar when considering his next steps. „At the moment, I think that the opportunities in the stock market are greater than in the crypto market,“ he told Cointelegraph on September 9th.

„I just can’t imagine really speculating with crypto,“ Brandt continued. He traced this mindset back to his generation. Brandt has been in traditional market trading since 1976, building Factor LLC in 1980, decades before the invention of blockchain assets.

„I belong to a generation that defines their wealth in US dollars,“ said Brandt. He described the US dollar as his standard method for storing wealth. „‚For a lot of the younger generation, the home currency is Bitcoin or whatever. I mean, whatever their house stone is.“

He was referring to a fad from the 1970s where people paid money for stones and they were sold in boxes as pets

“ Stacking Sats “ is a term from the crypto area. This means that people keep their assets in Bitcoin while investing trade and other profits back into Bitcoin to keep them longer term. Most of the industry also views the asset as a hedge or store of value . This indicates a possible generation change away from the US dollar. This has been the leading store of value in the past decades.

„I’m keeping a low profile and looking for opportunities,“ said Brandt, referring to his current attitude. „I currently see greater opportunities in selective stocks, not in the broad market, but in selected stocks. I see these less in crypto.“

In 2020 , mainstream assets have skyrocketed. Brandt’s view therefore coincides with the current stock market atmosphere.

The world’s largest banks are losing market capitalization: three times as much as Bitcoin

Before the Corona crisis, six banks had a higher market capitalization than Bitcoin. How many are there now?

Since the coronavirus outbreak, the world’s 14 largest banks have lost $ 635.33 billion in market capitalization

This is more than three times the current market capitalization of Bitcoin ( BTC ) and almost twice the capitalization of all cryptocurrencies.

The starting point for these dates is December 19th. By comparison, Bitcoin’s market capitalization at the time was $ 130 billion. When the world entered the recession that caused this pandemic, six of the banks on the list had a larger market cap than Bitcoin. Currently only two of them have a larger one, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is now also at about the same level as the cryptocurrency.

However, every single bank on the list has lost billions in market cap, while Bitcoin has gained $ 62 billion, or 48 percent, over the same period

As previously reported, the world’s largest annuity fund lost a sum equal to Bitcoin’s market cap in a single quarter . Meanwhile, Bitcoin has achieved unprecedented acceptance among traditional investors, such as the growth of Bitcoin Trust of grayscale displays . A stock exchange company recently made Bitcoin its reserve currency .

While big banks are unlikely to disappear anytime soon, they are still struggling with redefining their value proposition. The negative results they are showing may even have been caused, in part, by multi-trillion dollar bailouts from central banks around the world .